Modeling commuter mode shift to electric railway services: an integrated performance analysis and stated preference approach for the Rangkasbitung – Merak line

Authors

  • Gineung Pratidina Departemen of Civil Engineering , Serang Raya University, Banten, 42162 Indonesia
  • Muhammad Oka Mahendra Departemen of Civil Engineering , Serang Raya University, Banten, 42162 Indonesia

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22225/jipe.5.1.2026.23-32

Keywords:

demand, capacity, travel, regression, ridership

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between railway travel service characteristics and passenger demand on the Rangkasbitung – Merak commuter rail corridor. Secondary data on passenger volumes were obtained from PT Kereta Commuter Indonesia, while primary data were collected via on-board surveys conducted across multiple afternoon trips. Descriptive statistical analyses were performed to determine key performance indicators—namely load factor, travel time, dwell time, and commercial speed against established service standards. Subsequently, a binary logistic regression model was employed to assess the influence of travel cost and travel time on passengers’ likelihood to choose electric commuter services over conventional local trains. Results reveal an average load factor of 2.40, indicating the existing service capacity is frequently exceeded during peak periods. Average dwell times ranged between 2–5 minutes per station, and observed commercial speeds fell below the stipulated benchmark. Logistic regression analysis showed that travel cost (p = 0.316) did not exert a statistically significant effect on mode choice, whereas travel time emerged as a significant determinant: improvements in travel time increased the probability of passengers opting for electric commuter services by approximately 72.1%. These findings suggest that enhancing operational speed and optimizing station dwell times are critical to meeting passenger demand and improving overall service attractiveness on the Rangkasbitung – Merak route.

References

[1] L. Laurensius and S. 1 Charles Sitindaon, “Pemilihan Moda Transportasi Pematangsiantar menuju Bandara Silangit Dengan Metode Stated Preference,” 2019.

[2] Andriansyah and MSi, Manajemen Transportasi dalam Kajian dan Teori. 2017.

[3] W. Adika and P. Jiwa Osly, “ANALISIS KINERJA OPERASIONAL KERETA API JURUSAN JAKARTA-PURWAKARTA (STUDI KASUS KERETA API WALAHAR EKSPRES DAN CILAMAYA EKSPRES).”

[4] S. Sahara and B. N. A. N. Nugroho, “Efektivitas Penggunaan Kereta Listrik (KRL) Commuter Line Jabodetabek Untuk Mengurangi Kemacetan Di DKI Jakarta,” 2023.

[5] Y. M. A. Kariem, “PEMODELAN PEMILIHAN MODA KENDARAAN PRIBADI DAN KERETA API DALAM PERGERAKAN PENGLAJU (STUDI KASUS KORIDOR MOJOKERTO-SURABAYA),” 2018.

[6] R. A. Jayanti, T. B. Joewono, and M. Rizki, “AKSESIBILITAS STASIUN KERETA REL LISTRIK COMMUTER LINE BERDASARKAN PERSEPSI WANITA,” 2021.

[7] Y. Wiarco and S. Malkhamah, “Evaluasi terhadap Waktu Tunggu dan Jarak Berjalan Penumpang pada Perpindahan Moda di Stasiun Lempuyangan Yogyakarta”.

[8] T. M. Agustriana, “Evalusi Kinerja Kereta Api Perkotaan di Surabaya dan Sekitarnya pada Lintas Pelayanan Sidoarjo - Pasarturi - Bojonegoro”.

[9] B. Artanto and M. Sejahtera SURBAKTI, “Analisa Probabilitas Perpindahan Moda Transportasi Dari Bus Ke Kereta Api Rute Medan-Kotapinang Menggunakan Metode Stated Preference,” 2018.

[10] D. Rosyid et al., “Jurnal Teknik Sipil ANALISIS PEMILIHAN MODA TRANSPORTASI PENUMPANG ANTARA BUS DAN KERETA API RUTE SURABAYA-JAKARTA”.

[11] S. Mario Hasiholan, S. Hariyani, and I. Rini Dwi Ari Jurusan Perencanaan Wilayah dan Kota, “FAKTOR-FAKTOR PEMILIHAN MODA ANTARA KENDARAAN PRIBADI DAN KERETA COMMUTER LINE RUTE BEKASI-JAKARTA.”

[12] A. N. Oktaviani and M. O. Mahendra, “Evaluation of multimodal transportation integration facilities at Serang station,” Journal of Infrastructure Planning and Engineering, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 72–82, Oct. 2025, doi: 10.22225/jipe.4.2.2025.72-82.

[13] T. A. Ida Ayu, L. Ni Luh Putu, N. W. Ni Ketut, I Wayan Runa, and Putu Aryastana, “INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT IN KENDERAN VILLAGE, TEGALLALANG SUB-DISTRICT, GIANYAR REGENCY,” Journal of Infrastructure Planning and Engineering (JIPE), vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 10–15, Dec. 2023, doi: 10.22225/jipe.2.2.2023.10-15.

[14] D. Kasman, “Supply Chain Strategy and Its effect on Business Competitiveness: Case of Passion Fruit Industry in South Sulawesi (Indonesia),” 2019.

[15] Y. Nur, A. ?1, M. Rosita, A. Ananda, and P. Taufiq, “Peralihan Moda Transportasi Jasa Pengiriman Menggunakan Metode Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP): Studi Kasus PT. XYZ,” 2016.

[16] PERMENHUB No.48, “PM_48_Tahun_2015,” 2015.

[17] Nazwirman and Hulmansyah, “KARAKTERISTIK PENUMPANG PENGGUNA KRL COMMUTER LINE JABODETABEK,” 2017. [Online]. Available: http://www.krl.co.id/BERITA-TERKINI/evaluasi-

[18] Rosnaeni and I. Buchori, “Analisis Pemilihan Moda Transportasi Penduduk Kelurahan Pabuaran-Cibinong Pasca Pengoperasian Kereta Komuter (KRL) Jalur Nambo (Cibinong) – Citayam – Jakarta,” 2017.

[19] W. Adika and P. Jiwa Osly, “ANALISIS KINERJA OPERASIONAL KERETA API JURUSAN JAKARTA-PURWAKARTA (STUDI KASUS KERETA API WALAHAR EKSPRES DAN CILAMAYA EKSPRES).”

[20] S. Sahara and S. Zetalia, “Analisis Efektivitas Aplikasi KAI Acces Dalam Meningkatkan Efisiensi Perjalanan Penumpang KAI Commuter Line,” Shaqnas Zetalia INNOVATIVE: Journal Of Social Science Research, vol. 4, pp. 11904–11910, 2024.

Downloads

Published

2026-04-22

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 1 (2026)

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2026 Gineung Pratidina , Muhammad Oka Mahendra

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.

2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.

3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).